Dodgers will not sniff 1st place the rest of the season...

Will June 4th be the last day the Dodgers are in 1st place? Fuck no! LOL...

You heard it here first.
D-Bax/Padres are gonna cruise right on by.

Juan Pierre, Ned Colletti, Mitch Kupchak...

Thank goodness I dont live in LA.

The Dodgers miss out on Lincecum. Lucky bastards!

Tim Lincecum has given up 1ER in 25 IP in the PCL. The Dodgers are lucky they are catching the Giants before they bring him up.

Lowry, Cain, Zito, Lincecum might make the Giants an Angels-esque team. Great pitching with a horrible lineup + 1 star.

A GM job wouldn't be challenging enough for me.

I dont think the position would be challenging enough.
The economics of baseball are so simple, the game is so simple, that I'd essentially be competing with the equivalent of trained monkeys in that business. If you're in a business and everyone around you is a monkey, pretty soon everyone outside of that business will see you as simply the smartest monkey.

I dont want that.

I'd rather compete with the best minds in America in some other professional field in which competance is rewarded, rather than be the best monkey in a 3 ring circus.

Controlling my Enthusiasm

Juan Pierre hit a virtual inside the park 2-run home run in the 8th yesterday to give the Dodgers a 6-4 lead and win.
I couldn't control my enthusiam. Here is what I had to say.....

That was quite unprobable by Pierre.

wow. hooray. yawn. who cares? thats the way i feel. totally different from '05. that team started out 12-2 and I referred to them as 'us'. i was exuberant. i was excited. i loved it. now i'm miserable. i'm a super duper dodger fan, aren't I? back to bed. i sleep a lot when i'm depressed.

Mr. Ned chooses Schmidt over Ted Lilly. If only DePo were still here.

Presenting: Ted Lilly
ERA of 2.37
WHIP of 0.74
IP - 19
K - 24
BB - 3
DePodesta would have landed this stud. Good luck with Schmidt. SUCKERS!!!

Bob Timmerman gets snotty with me

During last nights game I had this snide remark to say...

Pierre really is brain dead at the plate. I cant think of even a baseball 'purist' that would enjoy watching him play.

To which Bob Timmerman replied...

I will alert all baseball fans who don't agree with you that they should stop coming to games or following the sport so as not to destroy your love of the game.

I will also have the Cardinals World Series championship from last year revoked too.

Anything else I can do while I'm up?

And me, being the stupid, clueless son of a bitch I am, thinks Bob Timmerman's the one with the problem. As I respond....

Geez Bob.

Whats your problem?

Choi vs. Loney

So you are going to evaluate Hee Seop Choi off THREE GAMES????? In an exhibition??? And totally throw out what he's done at the MLB level...? All the while throw support to Loney off of spring training, ignoring his marginal MINOR LEAGUE REGULAR seasons? THis is insane. I feel like I'm speaking to a bizarro universe. I think I will post less during the season and only chime in when Bradley rips the cover off the ball, or Nomar blows, or Lofton blows.

Stop this "Choi is inconsistent garbage". Its not true. His OPS was consistent every month of the season last year. And actually, his lowest OPS occurred in June, when he hit all those home runs. He's actually remarkably consistent considering his horrible playing time patterns. All Tracy had to do was keep him in the #2 spot against RHP, let him rack up 500 AB's and get him some spot time against LHP too. (which I advocated last spring that Choi was the perfect #2 hole hitter bc he was patient, and was a 3TO hitter, and was a fly ball hitter, meaning no Double Plays) But he didnt. (And again i was right, almost as right as Izturis's suckage) You cant argue about Choi's success hitting in the #2 spot. Choi got plenty of good pitches to hit with Drew behind him, and subsequently hammered them bc he's a power hitter. Nothing 'inconsistent' about that.

Its ridiculous that you even compare Loney to Choi, considering Choi put up much better minor league numbers AND has actually put up numbers in the major leagues. Loney also had a really good spring two years ago. He was horrible during the season. He repeated AA ball and didnt do anything extraordinary last year. Comparing a major league player to a player that hasnt played above AA is nonsense. You know it.

The Lakers are shitty too. (I should GM the Dodgers and the Lakers.)

The Lakers should not be getting worse as Kobe enters his prime years though. Thats essentially what happened.

I blame Mitch caving to Phil's "system", and not just drafting/signing the best players possible. Phil has too many slow non-athletic triangle guys that cant play defense, and you cant win in the Western Conference playing that style.

Kupchak killed the Lakers when he traded for Odom (who has a max contract), and traded Butler for Kwame (who also had a max contract). Kwame/Odom's contracts are the main reason there's no cap room. Those two are no where close to max-level talents.

The only thing that can make the Lakers contenders fast is essentially luck--get in the lottery this year, win the lottery, then take Oden. Trade Bynum, Odom, and a #1 pick for Garnett (I doubt McHale would ever do that though). It'll never happen.

As far as PG, just dump Smush at the very least. Put Kobe back in the backcourt with another big guard. The lakers dont need a prototype PG, just a guy that is solid and knows what he's doing and can play defense/not turn it over (Ron Harper circa 99-01).

Also from an entertainment stand point, I really hope Phil retires and the Lakers adopt the Suns/Mavs style. Up and down--athletic teams. I dont like watching slow unathletic players try to run with Kobe.

Martin's Patience - (Do I Get Anything Right??)

I made my usual bonehead comments with friends and fellow Dodger Haters over at Weisman's site last night.
Here is what I had to say first about Russ Martin.....

Martin is such a smart hitter.
He seems to always work the count.

Works the count? He's averaging 3.4 pitches per plate appearance.

Excellent AB by Martin.
Took 2 strikes, worked the count--executed.

Uhhh. He fell behind 0-2 and that's normally a good thing? Fortunately, Kim missed his outside target and got the inner half of the plate and Martin got the SF.

I wish the Dodgers had 8 guys with Martin's approach.

Martin's approach?? You mean taking a lot of pitches. Well, I guess I didn't realize that Betemit, Martinez, Valdez, Kent, Nomar, Ethier, and Gonzalez all see more pitches per PA than Martin.

I'm such a dumbass.

Some of my in depth analysis of the home opener.

Beimel finally got nabbed for a balk.

I doubt Kemp broke any bones.
But hopefully he gets an MRI to make sure there's no damage to his shoulder.

They must really not like Betemit against LHP..

Goin to Mike Liebertal.

Pierre swings at the 1st pitch

Russ gave it a good try.

Join me for more in depth Dodger conversation at www.dodgerthoughts.com or click here Jon Weisman.

Marlon Anderson is a piece of shit

Am I the only one that belives Valdez is just as valuable (or not valuable) as Marlon Anderson?

Why is a Left Handed pinch hitter (of which we have plenty), that never plays in the field nor can play the positions that Valdez/Ramon Martinez can, considered a lock for a roster spot?

If the team wants to keep Valdez, just DL/DFA Anderson. He's just as much of a career mediocrity as Valdez/Martinez.




What value does Marlon Anderson have in comparison to Wilson Valdez?

Defense--I'd give Valdez the edge
Pinch Running--Valdez
Versality of positions--Valdez
Pinch Hitting--Marlon
Age--Valdez is at least in his prime

Its no secret that no contending team would want either guy playing everyday. So if were just comparing which player brings more to the bench--I gotta go with Valdez.

Sure Marlon had 1 amazing september last month, but thats it.




Anderson's minor league #'s-
.287/.338/.415--.753 OPS

Anderson's major league #'s:
.267/.316/.394

Marlon's proven that he's pretty worthless at the major league level. He's 33 years old. He's not going to improve.

Valdez, may be a slightly weaker hitter (although Anderson's career OBP of .316 isnt exactly anything to write home about)--but I think Valdez defensive versatility and ability would make him more valuable.




Ramon Martinez career: .270/.330/.381
Marlon Anderson career: .267/.319/.394
Wilson Valdez--to small a major league sample, but comparably mediocre minor league numbers as the other two.

Marlon Anderson is just as much of a no-hit infielder as Ramon is. He just doenst have the glove.

Anderson's september really distorted his value I think. The guy is a bad hitter and not a very good fielder. The other two are bad hitters, but good fielders.

Baseball has the least drawbacks....

Baseball of course has its drawbacks. Kent may not work 9-5, but he's basically working 4-11 pm most likely. Constant travel, away from home, in the media spotlight all the time...

Golf--I dont see many drawbacks. The players can pick what events they wish to play, the paydays are incredible--and get this all you have to do is play golf at courses that the average citizen only dreams of playing at.

A pro baseball player I think has the most drawbacks of any pro sport.

Football I think has the least. Best pro job in sports is the 2nd string QB. Good money, minimal travel, generally lots of popularity, and you're protected in practice.

I had to open my big mouth.

I posted for the first time since December over at Dodger Blues. As you probably know, I go by the username Aruban Police over there. Here is what I had to say...

A little bump for those that hate Pierre/Gonzo.
Feel free to vent in this thread.

Joe Dodger, you might want to sticky this thread.

Ooops--gotta run. Milton Bradley just hit a HR.
Adios.

It was just a drive by post. Gonzo went 3-4 and Pierre had a couple of hits. The Dodgers also won the game so I was pretty pissed. Naturally I didn't post again. I always seem to make an ass of myself. I talk shit about a couple and players and then they have solid games. Oh well. At least the A's have won 2 in a row.

And I'd like to give a special thanks to Jon Weisman over at Dodgerthoughts for not banning me like every other Dodger forum. Jon knows a Dodger hater when he sees one. I appreciate that.

Paul LoDuca still sucks!!!

I don't care if he had 3 RBI's on Opening Night. I don't care if he is the 2 hole hitter for the most potent offense in the National League. I don't care if his image is on the cover of a video game. Hee Seop Choi is still better................and so is Jason Phillips.
End of story.

I'm thrilled Dodgers lost.........but Sheets got lucky.

Sheets got lucky this game.
Dodgers only had 2 hits, but Sheets GB/FB was 8/16. He's only had 3ks.

A Jeff Kent HR and Brady Clark double is what kept Sheets from a perfecto tho.


One of the few casual fans at dodgerthoughts posted this nonsense....

Do you really think Sheets is getting lucky? Most of those flyballs are just lazy fly balls to the outfield.

Then the smartass goes on to write.....

Another lucky inning for Sheets.

All I was trying to say was that the Dodgers were like 2-29 on balls in play. Thats luck.

Not saying that Sheets wasnt inducing weak contact, but even weak contact will find holes some of the time. Especially if those balls are hit in the air. Face it people. Sheets was lucky.


Then a different smartass tries to correct me with this bologna.....

Fly balls in play are much less likely to find holes than ground balls. Fly balls just happen to leave the park a lot more often.

FUTILITY: An Article by my good friend, and fellow Dodger hater, Andrew Shimmin on The Marlon Anderson trade late last August.

Andrew has a Dodger hate blog at www.truebluela.com.

Andrew is a fellow DePo lover. Here is what he had to say when Mr. Ned traded for Marlon Anderson.

http://www.truebluela.com/story/2006/9/1/1540/48339#commenttop

The acquisition of Marlon Anderson made me think about the pointlessness of acquiring a bench player this late in the season. With only a month to go, it's likely that Anderson would only get 20 at bats the rest of the way. With this in mind, I wondered what the odds were that a lesser player would out perform Anderson.

To do this, I made a simple program. You put in two averages and a number of at bats each player will get. The program then generates a random number from between 0 and 1. If the number is less than or equal to a players batting average, that player gets a hit. After all the at bats are generated, compare the number of hits between the players, and then the higher total gets a win. Now, repeat this process 100,000 times. Admittedly, this is a simplified process, but considering that Anderson doesn't have much patience or power, I didn't feel as though they needed to be figured in. If you want, you can assume that the other player has the same patience and power. The results are as follows.

Anderson avg. Player Two Avg. AB Anderson Win% Player Two Win% Tie%
.267 .220 50 65.48% 29.60% 4.92%
.267 .220 20 41.48% 39.71% 18.81%
.267 .220 10 45.96% 39.54% 14.50%
.267 .170 50 87.40% 7.27% 5.33%
.267 .170 20 70.01% 18.80% 11.19%
.267 .170 10 80.73% 6.11% 13.16%
.267 .100 50 98.34% 0.43% 1.26%
.267 .100 20 84.98% 6.22% 8.79%
.267 .100 10 67.57% 9.42% 23.00%


What conclusions can be drawn from this? Acquiring a guy like Anderson for the bench is completely pointless. Through no fault of his own, Anderson would get out hit by a guy who hits .100 six percent of the time if he's only given twenty at bats. If you narrow that gap to a .220 average, Anderson would only make a difference once every 20 years or so. Even when he does make a difference, how many times would he get five hits to the other guys four?

These numbers also show how random this truly is. For example, the .100 hitter actually out performed the .170 hitter over 100,000 trials. Just for fun, I ran these numbers a few more times, and came up with vastly different results each time. In some trials, Anderson actually was worse than the .220 hitter over 20 at bats, in other trials, he won over 65% of the time. It takes bumping the program to one million trials to get something resembling stable numbers. If the results of over 100,000 seasons are near random, you might as well just flip a coin if you're looking only at one season.

When you consider that the Dodgers have Delwyn Young, a man that's probably better than Marlon Anderson, this trade looks even more pointless. It's not that losing a guy like Jhonny Nunez is no problem, but you should at least gain something in a trade, right?

Turn Back The Clock, March '06, Part IV: My .800+ OPS lineup.

http://www.dodgers.cc/index.php?showtopic=1929&st=81

Thats the problem though. DePo was close to assembling 8 high OPS guys (most coming into their primes/upside) even if he didnt have an unlimited budget

Werth in LF- .830OPS his rookie year (Giles could have been here)
Choi/Saenz at 1st- .824 OPS as a starter
Bradley in CF- 800+ OPS
Kent/Perez at 2nd--800+
Drew in RF 900+
Guzman at SS- 800+ potential
LaRoche/Aybar-3rd- 800+
Navarro/Martin-at C- 775+

He was close to making it happen. Even if Werth was hurt and doesnt come back, he still has Cruz and i think would have had Giles bc he would have offered a 4th year.

However, Ned came in and signed Nomar, Lofton, traded Bradley, gave up on Choi, Werth, etc...moved Guzman off SS, and didnt sign Giles.

You're gonna see the ramifications when this team has trouble scoring runs, and the players let go or traded away go on to have good careers.

My way scores more runs than your way. I think you are agreeing with that (high ops team) but you've said its not possible to put together a team like that with a budget. It definitely is. And it was definitely in the works until the McCourts gave into the media pressure and failed to see the big picture. Dispute it all you want, but I'm relying on numbers. You are not. I'm relying on 60yrs of baseball data that says scoring runs is most correlated to a team's OPS. You are not.

You are relying on generalizations, "A 1st basemen should be this...A SS should do this, etc..Odalis Perez isnt a 'winner'."... Screw that. I want every single position OPS'ing at least .800... And it was close to happening. And I'm going to evaluate every one individually and fairly.

The Dodgers are back in the dark ages of Fred Claire meets Kevin Malone in my opinion. Bloated payroll with marginal results.

I hope everyone enjoys it for this season.

However, after the A's win the WS and the media jumps on the bandwagon again, maybe Frank will switch gears yet again.

Did you like the part where I said I was going to evaluate every one individually and fairly? What about the part where I have Brian Giles leading off?

Lets also break down this comment of mine.... "However, Ned came in and signed Nomar, Lofton, traded Bradley, gave up on Choi, Werth, etc...moved Guzman off SS, and didnt sign Giles."

Signed Nomar.
Signed Lofton.
Traded Bradley.
Gave up on Choi.
Gave up on Werth.
Moved Guzman off ss.
Didn't sign Giles.

All you have to do is look at these 7 decisions to see that Mr. Ned in a joke of a GM. The man obviously has no idea what he is doing.

Turn Back The Clock, March '06, Part III: That Godawful Bradley trade

http://www.dodgers.cc/index.php?showtopic=1929&st=88

Guzman has lost most of his value since he moved off SS. He's now only average playing in the OF. If he was at SS, he'd be a ton more valuable.

Letting Bradley go (and check Colletti's quotes after the trade, he took full responsibility for moving him), might be the dumbest move the Dodgers have made since giving up Pedro Martinez and getting DeShields back. At least with the Piazza deal, they got good talent in return. .800+ OPS CF'ers are rare. Just like 800+OPS SS's are rare. We had 1, and a very good likliehood of the other. Now, we have none.

1st base- should be Choi/Saenz
SS- Should be Guzman
CF- Should be Bradley
LF- Should be Giles

Thats 4 positions that if the McCourts had seen the 'big picture', probably could have happened.

Compare the upside with those 4, versus whom is playing those positions now.


Guzman has lost most of his value since he moved off SS. He's now only average playing in the OF. If he was at SS, he'd be a ton more valuable.

...............and continuing on
http://www.dodgers.cc/index.php?showtopic=1929&st=98

I'm not saying Bradley is as good as Pedro.

I'm just saying that the established talent going out, and whatever talent coming in has the makings of the worst trade since the Pedro/Delino deal.

And honestly, the Pedro/Delino deal was only bad in hind site. At the time, it probably looked good bc Delino was an ok 2nd basemen and Pedro just a middle reliever.

At no time have I have ever seen the Dodgers trade 2 young, productive MLB'ers for a marginal minor league talent. It was just a terrible move.

At least I said Bradley wasn't as good as Pedro.....

Turn Back The Clock, March '06, Part II: Did Mr. Ned do his job?

http://www.dodgers.cc/index.php?showtopic=1929&st=74

Playoffs are a crap shoot. The GM's job is to get the team into the playoffs. After that its mostly about luck when you are talking about 5 and 7 game series.
You cant win a WS without first making the playoffs.

I spew so much bullshit I can't keep track of it half the time. I'm going to retract this statement. I refuse to acknowledge that Mr. Ned did his job. It was all luck, Logan White, JD Drew, Brad Penny, and Derek Lowe that got the Dodgers to the playoffs.

Turn Back the Clock, March '06, Part I: Fantasy Leaguers Could Be GM's

http://www.dodgers.cc/index.php?showtopic=1929&st=60

I hate to tell you, but there's a ton of finance guys playing fantasy baseball that could put together a better baseball team than most of the 'professionals' that have only reached their positions due to the good ole boy network. Acting as tho I cant comment on baseball bc i've never played in the major leagues...Thats ridiculous.Quick example. THere's a girl in my neighborhood that rides motorcycles. She's had 3 wrecks in the last 6 months. Now, I myself do not ride motorcycles. But can I not judge her as being a bad rider? I think she is. I've told her that she is. Am I wrong?How's that different than baseball? I see a team full of players that really havent produced much over the last several years. They've had 'wrecks' in the past. THey'll likely to 'wreck' again. Its not 'fantasy' in saying a team isnt very good, and the person that put the team together doesnt understand how to put a team together.

Like I've said before. Being a good GM is like being the best trained monkey in the circus. I don't want that.

It's like the Dodgers are back in the 90's again.

The Dodgers will finish 84-78. The record will rest mainly on the steady pitching of Derek Lowe, steady out making of Juan Pierre, and overall mediocrity of Luis Gonzales and Jeff Kent (whom both seemingly had a Steve Finley-esque nosedive to their careers).

By the time the season was over with, Dodger fans were left pondering whether it was indeed 2007, or actually 1997. An era of bloated payroll, prospect trading, and general malaise had returned home to Dodger Blue.

The 1990's werent all bad, werent all good, just kinda average. For the 2007 Dodgers, it was a return to the good ole' days..er average ole' days.

BRING BACK DEPO!!